Forecasting can be easy and reliable if it involves a consistent, creditable selling process . A simple method of forecasting is applicable to many fields ; shining or diminishing.

The simple system comprises three components-
  • Will the sale for some vendor actually happen?
  • The match to your ideal customer profile.
  • The quality of the sales person.
The question whether the deal will occur, arises when you are certain that the potential customer will buy something from somebody. Forecasts usually fail due to this deal or no deal .

Demographic and psycho graphic characteristics must be carefully looked into while making sales Focus on the sales you have made rather than on ideal customers.

Example of a Profile

I own consultancy services and training programs regarding all aspects of selling and sales management. My profile is-
  1. Do they know the basics of the program i teach?
  2. Do I have access to all the decision-makers ?
  3. Do they have money to spend or are they hit financially?
  4. Do they hire consultants?
  5. Do they impart training?
  6. Do they have 15 or more sales people?
These characteristics are found when I make most sales . When I meet a prospect for the first time, I listen or ask questions to get this information. I try to confirm with at least one more person.

Quality of the Sales Person speaks a lot. The best sales people have the ability to identify the lookers, the buyers, the time
consumers and the abusers. If they get a buyer they make sure the deal is made. However if the deal is not profitable, they don't chase it .

Determining the Probability of Success
  • Suggestion of a fit ................ 0% or 30%; No or Yes
  • Match to Profile .................. 0% - 30% Degree of the match. If you're guessing, the probability will be off.
  • Quality of Sales Person ...... Top 10%=25%, Top 25%=10%, Top 50%=0%, Top 75%=-5%, Bottom 25%=-10%
  • Add it Up!
Refining the Probability

If you have a consistent, creditable, sales process you can tighten this up tremendously. You will be able to assess the following elements and assign values that indicate the deviation of the probability from above.

The Sales Elements:
  • Knowledge of the opportunity - Specifics of the Client, What, How Much and When they want.
  • Degree to which all the decision-makers are covered - The powerful, the functional, the administrators.
  • The number of internal and external coaches helping you.
  • Access to the ultimate decision-maker and the match to what s/he really wants and needs.
  • Knowledge of competition's strength and weaknesses - as seen by the decision-makers.
  • Match to the your ideal profile - (yes, again).
  • An Action Plan that addresses the threats, uses the strengths, attains the needed information and improves position with the powerful and influential decision-makers.
The degree to which you can address these will really highlight the validity and accuracy range of your probability.

Now go forth and predict.